Streaks... What's really on the line?
Many streaks ended this week.
Arsenal had its 49 game undefeated streak snapped.
The Red Sox broke the "curse of the bambino" and won a world series after 86 years.
Australia came to India and beat them there for the first time in 36 years - crossing "the final frontier".
In a very small and insignificant occurrence, my football (soccer) team had a streak snapped as well. We lost our 4 game streak. Funnily enough, this little streak sparked off a thought in my head while all the bigger ones failed, presumably because it was personal. And this rumination led me to thoughts of the occurrences listed above, as well as a few others, not so much in recent memory.
What do streaks really mean? What do they contribute? And can snapped streaks be better for teams/players?
Quite often, players can get bogged down by streaks. So obsessed are they with the streak that they fail to recognize the importance of the game itself. The Now. A common enough occurrence in sport, it is, in many ways a reflection of how we, as people, think.
Take for example, the obvious benefits of breaking the Red Sox curse. After 86 years of obsessive self-pity, Boston can now shed its ‘choker’ reputation and move into a phase when the team, the fans, and the city as a whole begins to think of each game as a potential for a good game, contingent solely upon ability and the degree of variability caused by chance, the same as any other game. Too often, the game, when viewed in the context of a season, a dynasty, or a ‘curse’; can lose its intrinsic charm. Superstition presides over passion. The players and fans pore over precedent – with no more than a cursory glance at how well the team has performed, how the game is played and what magic the game itself beholds.
R.C.Vergin, in his paper in the Journal of Sport Behavior (2000) has empirically concluded that the ‘momentum’ provided by streaks does not show a marked improvement in performance or satisfaction. “The reason for the statistical insignificance of momentum on individual event performance may be partly explained by the randomness of sporting events and partly by the decision times sportspeople are faced with”. This seems plausible, but not entirely convincing.
I suspect a key factor (though how it can be proven, it’s hard to say) is the fact that when a streak ends, and the focus is off the low frequency statistic of number of games won or lost; we begin to participate in the immediate action. Ball-by-ball begins to matter more. One game at a time begins to dominate the ‘big picture’. This, as I see it, is the essence of sport. The very essence of impermanence and instant gratification. Streaks tend to mimic our expectation from life itself.
Do we allocate way too much significance to the streaks? The Chicago Bulls in 1996 won 72 games in the regular season – a record. Steffi Graf was nearly unbeaten in 1988, and conquered the ‘Grand Slam’. The New England Patriots currently hold the longest win streak in the NFL. Yet, it is none of these achievements that stand out in our memory when we think of the defining moments in these individuals’ (or teams’) careers. Each of these performances has been, in some ways, lackluster in their totality – devoid of the brilliance each one of them has displayed on other, more vulnerable occasions. Mind you, I am not criticizing dominance or superiority of an athlete – just chastising us all for unduly glorifying ‘streaks’.
It is entirely possible, and I think it is the case, that the end of a streak saves an individual or a team from himself/itself. The spotlight shifts away from the streak and onto the current events. The expectations while a winning streak lasts are that the world would be an intolerable place and existence inconsequential – if it weren’t for the status bestowed by the wins. And when the loss comes, and life goes on, and everything is as it should be – a sense of normalcy resumes. The artificial inflation of pressure and expectation subsides and is replaced by a natural sense of purpose.
In a lot of ways, Arsenal and the Indian cricket team may be better off for having lost. Maybe India will begin to stop emphasizing on ‘defending’ home soil and begin to play every match for its own sake. Maybe Arsenal can now shift its focus from the Premier League (which is deficient in many ways) and onto the European club competitions – the true test for any club. Maybe I can stop worrying about keeping a clean sheet and set out to become ‘just a better goalkeeper’. The world will take care of itself. The streaks will take care of themselves.
Arsenal had its 49 game undefeated streak snapped.
The Red Sox broke the "curse of the bambino" and won a world series after 86 years.
Australia came to India and beat them there for the first time in 36 years - crossing "the final frontier".
In a very small and insignificant occurrence, my football (soccer) team had a streak snapped as well. We lost our 4 game streak. Funnily enough, this little streak sparked off a thought in my head while all the bigger ones failed, presumably because it was personal. And this rumination led me to thoughts of the occurrences listed above, as well as a few others, not so much in recent memory.
What do streaks really mean? What do they contribute? And can snapped streaks be better for teams/players?
Quite often, players can get bogged down by streaks. So obsessed are they with the streak that they fail to recognize the importance of the game itself. The Now. A common enough occurrence in sport, it is, in many ways a reflection of how we, as people, think.
Take for example, the obvious benefits of breaking the Red Sox curse. After 86 years of obsessive self-pity, Boston can now shed its ‘choker’ reputation and move into a phase when the team, the fans, and the city as a whole begins to think of each game as a potential for a good game, contingent solely upon ability and the degree of variability caused by chance, the same as any other game. Too often, the game, when viewed in the context of a season, a dynasty, or a ‘curse’; can lose its intrinsic charm. Superstition presides over passion. The players and fans pore over precedent – with no more than a cursory glance at how well the team has performed, how the game is played and what magic the game itself beholds.
R.C.Vergin, in his paper in the Journal of Sport Behavior (2000) has empirically concluded that the ‘momentum’ provided by streaks does not show a marked improvement in performance or satisfaction. “The reason for the statistical insignificance of momentum on individual event performance may be partly explained by the randomness of sporting events and partly by the decision times sportspeople are faced with”. This seems plausible, but not entirely convincing.
I suspect a key factor (though how it can be proven, it’s hard to say) is the fact that when a streak ends, and the focus is off the low frequency statistic of number of games won or lost; we begin to participate in the immediate action. Ball-by-ball begins to matter more. One game at a time begins to dominate the ‘big picture’. This, as I see it, is the essence of sport. The very essence of impermanence and instant gratification. Streaks tend to mimic our expectation from life itself.
Do we allocate way too much significance to the streaks? The Chicago Bulls in 1996 won 72 games in the regular season – a record. Steffi Graf was nearly unbeaten in 1988, and conquered the ‘Grand Slam’. The New England Patriots currently hold the longest win streak in the NFL. Yet, it is none of these achievements that stand out in our memory when we think of the defining moments in these individuals’ (or teams’) careers. Each of these performances has been, in some ways, lackluster in their totality – devoid of the brilliance each one of them has displayed on other, more vulnerable occasions. Mind you, I am not criticizing dominance or superiority of an athlete – just chastising us all for unduly glorifying ‘streaks’.
It is entirely possible, and I think it is the case, that the end of a streak saves an individual or a team from himself/itself. The spotlight shifts away from the streak and onto the current events. The expectations while a winning streak lasts are that the world would be an intolerable place and existence inconsequential – if it weren’t for the status bestowed by the wins. And when the loss comes, and life goes on, and everything is as it should be – a sense of normalcy resumes. The artificial inflation of pressure and expectation subsides and is replaced by a natural sense of purpose.
In a lot of ways, Arsenal and the Indian cricket team may be better off for having lost. Maybe India will begin to stop emphasizing on ‘defending’ home soil and begin to play every match for its own sake. Maybe Arsenal can now shift its focus from the Premier League (which is deficient in many ways) and onto the European club competitions – the true test for any club. Maybe I can stop worrying about keeping a clean sheet and set out to become ‘just a better goalkeeper’. The world will take care of itself. The streaks will take care of themselves.
posted by Harish at 17:33
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